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MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-09-10

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Kyle Schwarber PHI 44 ▶49
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 41 ▶45
Junior Caminero TB 39 ▶43
Yordan Alvarez HOU 38 ▶42
Hunter Goodman COL 37 ▶41
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Luis Arraez PHI 0.318
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.310
Chandler Simpson TB 0.308
Nick Gonzales PIT 0.305
Yandy Díaz TB 0.305
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
Sal Stewart CIN 107 ▶119
Alec Burleson STL 104 ▶115
Jordan Walker STL 100 ▶110
Pete Alonso BAL 97 ▶107
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 97 ▶107
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 46 ▶50
Chandler Simpson TB 41 ▶45
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 40 ▶45
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 39 ▶43
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 36 ▶40
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.95
Cam Schlittler NYY 2.01
Chris Sale ATL 2.10
Dylan Cease TOR 2.40
Parker Messick CLE 2.53
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Sonny Gray BOS 17 ▶19
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 17 ▶19
Chase Burns CIN 15 ▶17
Foster Griffin CLE 15 ▶17
Eduardo Rodriguez AZ 15 ▶17
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 236 ▶260
Gavin Williams CLE 228 ▶251
Dylan Cease TOR 227 ▶250
Jesús Luzardo PHI 221 ▶245
Cam Schlittler NYY 220 ▶246
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Bryan Baker TB 39 ▶43
Riley O'Brien STL 36 ▶40
Cade Smith CLE 35 ▶39
Mason Miller SD 34 ▶38
Aroldis Chapman BOS 33 ▶36

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Team Spotlight

Philadelphia Phillies — Multi-Category Leaders

PHI currently leads 2 statistical categories, showing dominance across both offense and pitching.

HR #1AVG #1

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

MIL
+172 Pyth .618
LAD
+169 Pyth .619
CHC
+128 Pyth .581
NYY
+124 Pyth .595
ATL
+110 Pyth .581

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →