MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-07-27

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Yordan Alvarez HOU 34 ▶51
Kyle Schwarber PHI 33 ▶50
Hunter Goodman COL 31 ▶47
Ben Rice NYY 31 ▶48
James Wood WSH 30 ▶46
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Otto Lopez MIA 0.328
Luis Arraez SF 0.327
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.323
Nick Gonzales PIT 0.313
Yandy Díaz TB 0.303
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
CJ Abrams WSH 82 ▶125
Yordan Alvarez HOU 77 ▶117
Jordan Walker STL 77 ▶119
Sal Stewart CIN 76 ▶118
Ben Rice NYY 72 ▶111
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 37 ▶57
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 30 ▶45
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 27 ▶42
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 26 ▶40
Chandler Simpson TB 26 ▶40
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.58
Cam Schlittler NYY 2.07
Chris Sale ATL 2.19
Chase Burns CIN 2.42
Nick Martinez TB 2.45
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 13 ▶20
Aaron Ashby MIL 12 ▶19
Chase Burns CIN 12 ▶19
Sonny Gray BOS 12 ▶19
Foster Griffin WSH 12 ▶18
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 185 ▶285
Dylan Cease TOR 167 ▶255
Cam Schlittler NYY 157 ▶242
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 157 ▶240
Gavin Williams CLE 156 ▶236
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Cade Smith CLE 29 ▶44
Bryan Baker TB 28 ▶43
Mason Miller SD 27 ▶41
Riley O'Brien STL 26 ▶40
Aroldis Chapman BOS 24 ▶37

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

LAD
+155 Pyth .648
MIL
+142 Pyth .637
ATL
+107 Pyth .604
NYY
+84 Pyth .586
CHC
+76 Pyth .569

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →