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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-06-07

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
STL St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 7.0 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
ATH Athletics 0-3 8.3 RA/G
CIN Cincinnati Reds 0-3 7.0 RA/G
SD San Diego Padres 0-3 4.7 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
TB 37-24 .607 .516 +.090
PHI 34-30 .531 .460 +.071
CIN 31-32 .492 .425 +.067
STL 34-28 .548 .493 +.055
CLE 36-29 .554 .509 +.045
SD 32-30 .516 .472 +.044
ATH 30-34 .469 .425 +.044

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
LAD 41-23 .641 .721 .080
NYY 37-26 .587 .649 .062
DET 26-39 .400 .457 .057
BOS 27-35 .435 .493 .057
LAA 24-40 .375 .422 .047
NYM 28-35 .444 .486 .042
MIL 38-23 .623 .654 .031
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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