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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-09-10

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
MIL Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 5.3 R/G
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 4.7 R/G
NYM New York Mets 3-0 10.3 R/G
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 7.7 R/G
SD San Diego Padres 3-0 5.7 R/G
SF San Francisco Giants 3-0 4.7 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
CHC Chicago Cubs 0-3 5.3 RA/G
CIN Cincinnati Reds 0-3 7.7 RA/G
STL St. Louis Cardinals 0-3 4.7 RA/G
MIA Miami Marlins 0-3 10.3 RA/G
WSH Washington Nationals 0-3 5.7 RA/G
COL Colorado Rockies 0-3 7.0 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
TB 87-59 .596 .540 +.056
CIN 69-77 .473 .417 +.055
PHI 82-64 .562 .527 +.034
HOU 74-72 .507 .472 +.034
AZ 78-69 .531 .499 +.031
TOR 73-74 .497 .471 +.026
TEX 72-74 .493 .471 +.022

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 67-79 .459 .541 .082
LAA 56-90 .384 .447 .063
WSH 67-81 .453 .500 .047
COL 55-90 .379 .412 .033
CHC 81-66 .551 .581 .030
SF 62-85 .422 .450 .028
PIT 73-73 .500 .522 .022
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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