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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-07-27

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
TB Tampa Bay Rays 3-0 5.0 R/G
SD San Diego Padres 3-0 5.3 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
CLE Cleveland Guardians 0-3 5.0 RA/G
MIA Miami Marlins 0-3 5.3 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
PHI 57-49 .538 .489 +.049
TB 62-43 .591 .542 +.048
CIN 49-55 .471 .435 +.036
TEX 53-52 .505 .475 +.030
HOU 52-55 .486 .458 +.028
ATH 44-61 .419 .393 +.026
CLE 54-53 .505 .481 +.024

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 50-56 .472 .530 .058
LAA 42-64 .396 .439 .043
BOS 54-50 .519 .551 .031
SF 44-61 .419 .444 .025
PIT 54-52 .509 .534 .025
NYM 44-62 .415 .439 .024
NYY 59-46 .562 .586 .024
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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